A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION IN HIMACHAL PRADESH, PUNJAB AND HARYANA STATES OF INDIA

ABSTRACT

The universe is facing heavily the evil effects of Global warming, which is aburning issue today.With the advancement of civilization, new industries have been set-up to enhance production as per the need of society along with the population explosion.India is familiar as a developing country in the world, and at present, India has a significant contribution tothe augmentation of Greenhouse Gases in the environment, which induces global warming.Global warming has serious effects of worsening the environment.It causes the melting of ice,extinction of species, prevalance ofseveral fatal diseases,loss of biodiversity etc. In this paper, we develop a statistical model that analyzes and predicts the trend of emission of Carbon dioxidein Himachal Pradesh,Punjab,and Haryana.For this purpose, we have considered the data set of21 years of gas emission and tried to fit a fourth-degree polynomial curve by the least square method. We have tried to sketch a comparative scenario of carbon-dioxide emissions in the chosen states along with the forecast of the long-term evolutionary trend of the emission.The Instantaneous Rate of Change (IROC)analysishas been employed for this purpose.The efficacies of the model have been tested by residual analysis, coefficient of determination R2, and adjusted R2.

KEYWORDS:Global warming, Green House Gases(GHG),Mathematical model, Regression analysis,Instantaneous Rate of Change (IROC).

https://doi.org/10.37948/ensemble-2020-0202-a001